DuyHungBn_Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.5.1 (x86)

Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.5.1 (x86)

Palisade Decision Tools Suite 5.5.1 (x86) | 166.33 MB
The DecisionTools Suite is an integrated set of programs for risk analysis and decision making under uncertainty that run in Microsoft Excel. The DecisionTools Suite 5.5.1 includes new versions of RISK for Monte Carlo simulation, recisionTree for decision trees, and TopRank for what if sensitivity analysis. In addition, the DecisionTools Suite comes with new versions of StatTools for statistical analysis and forecasting, NeuralTools for predictive neural networks, and Evolver and RISKOptimizer for optimization. All programs work together better than ever before, and all integrate completely with Microsoft Excel for ease of use and maximum flexibility.

All products in the DecisionTools Suite have been fully translated into Spanish, German, French, Portuguese and Japanese. All dialogs, menus, documentation, examples and tutorials have been carefully translated, making the DecisionTools Suite more accessible to decision makers around the world.

RISK 5.5.1 for Excel runs simulations 2 to 20 times faster than version 5.0 It also includes a wide range of new features to improve your analysis, save time, and encourage systematic adoption of risk analysis across your organization.

RISK for risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation

RISK performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheetand tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid.

Greater Than the Sum of its Parts
Each component of the DecisionTools Suite can perform a powerful analysis. When you combine these products, you can achieve more complete results than any single program can provide.

RISK and TopRank
The focus of an RISK analysis can be narrowed using TopRank. Especially with large models, this saves time and improves accuracy of your RISK analysis. RISK functions can also be used by TopRank to represent a wider range of values than TopRanks standard functions.

Watch how RISK and TopRank work together

RISK and PrecisionTree
In addition, RISK can be combined with PrecisionTree to represent uncertain chance events and payoffs in decision tree models. This enhances the accuracy of decision tree models by considering wider ranges of values for chance events instead of a few limited, discrete options.

Watch how RISK and PrecisionTree work together

RISK then StatTools
RISK results can be run through a StatTools analysis to assess confidence intervals. RISK can also be applied to results from a StatTools time-series forecast to simulate possible outcomes with more precision.

Getting Started in @RISK

@RISK performs risk analysis using Monte Carlo simulation to show you many possible outcomes in your Microsoft Excel spreadsheet—and tells you how likely they are to occur. This means you can judge which risks to take and which ones to avoid, allowing for the best decision making under uncertainty. With @RISK, you can answer questions like, “What is the probability of profit exceeding $10 million?” or “What are the chances of losing money on this venture?”

These tutorial movies will walk you through an @RISK analysis. Except for the Overview, they are less than one minute each and will get you up and running with @RISK in no time. To get started right away, check out the 2 Minute Overview.

1. Quick Start
   1. 2 Minute Overview
2. MODEL — Set Up Your Model
   1. Define Distributions
   2. Swap Out Functions
   3. Define Outputs
   4. Model Window
3. SIMULATE — Run the Simulation
   1. Simulation Settings
   2. Run Simulation
4. UNDERSTAND — Analyze Simulation Results
   1. Histograms and Cumulative Curves
   2. Tornado Graphs
   3. Scatter Plots
   4. Scatter from Tornado
   5. Overlay Results Graphs
   6. Graph Markers
   7. Graph Titles
   8. Customizing Results Graphs
   9. Summary Box Plots and Trend Graphs
   10. Results Summary Window
   11. Data and Statistics Windows
   12. Sensitivity and Scenario Analysis
   13. Reports in Excel
5. Advanced Features
   1. Distribution Fitting
   2. @RISK Library
   3. Correlate Inputs
   4. Six Sigma Functions

  DecisionTools Suite Industries & Applications

The DecisionTools Suite is used to analyze risk and uncertainty in a wide variety of industries. From the financial to the scientific, anyone who faces uncertainty in their quantitative analyses can benefit from The DecisionTools Suite.

INDUSTRY FINANCE AND SECURITIES   » Models   » Case Studies   INSURANCE / REINSURANCE   » Models   » Case Studies MANUFACTURING   » Case Studies OIL / GAS / ENERGY   » Models   » Case Studies PHARMACEUTICALS / MEDICAL / HEALTHCARE   » Case Studies ENVIRONMENT   » Case Studies GOVERNMENT AND DEFENSE   » Case Studies AEROSPACE AND TRANSPORTATION   » Case Studies SAMPLE APPLICATION Retirement planning Currency valuation Real options analysis Discounted Cash Flow analysis Value-at-risk Portfolio optimization Loss reserves estimation Premium pricing Six Sigma and quality analysis New product analysis Production siting Plant shutdown Product life cycle analysis Six Sigma and quality analysis Exploration and production Oil reserves estimation Capital project estimation Pricing Regulation compliance New product analysis R&D estimation Disease infection estimation Endangered species preservation Pollution cleanup and projections Resource allocation War games Welfare and budgetary projections Cost estimating Highway planning and optimization Supply chain distribution

Excel Ease of Use
The DecisionTools Suite integrates completely with your spreadsheet. Browse, define, analyze – while never leaving Excel. All DecisionTools Suite functions are true Excel functions, and behave exactly as native Excel functions do. Windows are all linked directly to cells in your spreadsheet, so changes in one place are carried out in the other. Graphs point to their cells via callout windows. Drag-and-drop ease, context-sensitive right-click menus, and intuitive toolbars make learning and navigating DecisionTools Suite a snap.

Two Editions to Meet Your Needs

DecisionTools Suite Features & Benefits

FEATURES See all possible outcomes with Monte Carlo simulation Map out decisions with decision trees and influence diagrams Works in Excel Genetic algorithm optimization Sensitivity or What-If Analysis Distribution viewing and fitting Presentation-quality graphs and reports   Full integration between programs Parallel processing Bundle pricing BENEFITS Avoid pitfalls and identify opportunities in @RISK or PrecisionTree modelss Identify and illustrate the best alternative No need to learn new applications from scratch Solve complex, nonlinear problems involving uncertainty Identify the most important variables in @RISK or PrecisionTree models Accurate description of uncertainty Easily explain results and recommendations to others Easily install and migrate between component tools; apply analyses from one tool to another tool’s model for greater insight Speed up large Monte Carlo simulations by using available CPUs within a single machine Save money compared to buying products separately

Licensing and Training

The DecisionTools Suite is available through a variety of licensing options, including corporate, network, and academic licenses. Training, consulting, and books can be bundled with your software to ensure you and your staff get the most out of your investment.

100% Excel

@RISK simulations are calculated 100% within Excel, supported by Palisade sampling and statistics proven in over twenty years of use. Palisade does not attempt to rewrite Excel in an external recalculator to gain speed. A single recalculation from an unsupported or poorly reproduced macro or function can dramatically change your results. Where will it occur, and when? Palisade harnesses the power of multiple CPUs and multi-core processors to give you the fastest calculations. Correct results—and fast—using @RISK and the DecisionTools Suite!
COMPATIBILITY: DecisionTools Suite is compatible with PC Excel 2000 and higher and PC Windows 2000 and higher.

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